If you’re in the market for a hybrid or electric vehicle at the moment you may be best advised to wait a few months as prices that were already climbing due to the ongoing spike in fuel costs are likely to be further increased due to production shutdowns in Japan due to the tragic earthquake and tsunami just 10 days ago. In some cases short-term availability could be non-existent. Most likely to be impacted by short-term price hikes are the Toyota Prius and Honda Fit but the expectation is that cars that are considered eco-friendly will see a short-term increase as supply struggles to meet demand. Analysts have seen the Prius for example selling below invoice just a few weeks ago to an anticipated level above the sticker price by the end of the month. At present most Japanese automakers build many of the best-selling lines in the US but some models including the two have mentioned are still assembled and then shipped from Japan. To complicate that supplies were already limited due to a strengthening demand so far in 2011 as a result of rapidly increasing prices for gasoline.

Coincidentally Toyota, Honda and Nissan all have vehicles that are amongst their fastest selling models so far this year that are each being produced in Japan. The intermediate impact of electricity blackouts in Japan and the resultant backlog in production is still being observed so it’s a little early to determine how long the impact will last although it is having a similar effect in the semiconductor industry which like the automotive sector is also a huge consumer of electricity in the manufacturing process. The Toyota Prius may be most greatly affected in the coming weeks and months as there is less than a 60 day supply currently on US soil while the demand continues to grow. Crunch time is expected to begin the last days of this month and then into April with the continued changes in gas prices also likely to determine how lengthy the shortage is. According to online studies prices of environmentally friendly cars especially those manufactured in Japan have shown increases of greater than two percent so far in 2011 with almost half of that increase being over the last 10 days. Subaru in the US and Canada are also in a difficult position at the moment as lower inventories are maintained many models have less than a 30 day supply in North America ready to be sold. Either way you look at it the likelihood is that prices will continue to increase for at least the next month or two.

Meanwhile in Japan Toyota have said that the company is making every effort to minimize any long-term impact on the availability of any model and say that their current inventories are overall ‘still adequate’. The main contributor has not been damage to manufacturing centers but the process to assess the safety of all buildings is still ongoing, whereas the staggered rolling blackouts of electricity in all regions has caused bigger delays. Toyota has currently stopped production until at least today with the exception of parts needed for the repair business, while Nissan anticipates seeing two plants come back online this week and three more next week. According to an automotive industry study almost 200,000 vehicles that would normally be entering the market have not been built since the earthquake struck, in many cases building safety has not been the issue but a delay in components such as microprocessors. The automotive industry is ever more reliant on the semiconductor industry which has seen similar and in some cases larger impact in Japan since the event on March 11th.

Economically as you’d expect the implications of the disaster stand to be huge in tandem with the environmental impact which is far too early to even begin to assess. Strangely it also means that purchasing a vehicle that is more environmentally friendly will be more difficult or expensive in the short term.